Holidays snaps: phase 2
http://www.geocities.com/buckwells_du7/holiday.htm
Sorry about the delay.
For sale: the perfect couple
It’s sure to make fascinating reading. I can’t wait to see Leyton’s new Italian coffee table or hear Bec’s recipe for muffins…..
But has the dystopia of Truman Show has finally arrived – can a corporation now buy – or at least rent – a person? Would you be willing to sell your soul for $1 million?
You bet. Fleece the suckered public for all you can – it’s what the Big Brother house has taught us.
Thursday, September 29, 2005
If....
Are losing theirs...
...you probably don’t understand the seriousness of the situation,
Embittered loud-mouths and stupid old duffers
The current leadership would simply smile wryly and bluster a reply back to some hack, as they try to brush her comments aside as the ramblings of a dotty old bat, whilst remaining privately in awe of their great leader’s timeless fascist fantasies.
New Labour (UK) may well suffer the same indignity when (if?) Blair goes. But then again, maybe he is too bright for all that and he will ride confidently off into the sunset – or Brussels - and not come back to haunt Gordon, or Charles or Dr John.
In the last couple of weeks, two ex-leaders of the Australian Labor Party (ALP) have done their level best to make the front bench an uncomfortable place to be. And it’s working: in the process they are making the ALP look like a second string High school debating team and more of an electoral liability than ever before.
It would be amusing, but sadly they are making it ever more likely that John Howard will remain Prime Minister forever.
First up, the embittered Mark Latham – the defeated ALP leader from the 2004 federal election - published the “Mark Latham Diaries” – a vindictive insight into how he remembered his brief period as Labor leader. In his book – and on any talk-show that is willing to have him – he has poured scorn on the factional infighting and the political intrigue, verging on personal defamation, which has dogged the ALP. He labels the current leader, Kim Beazley, a ‘sit on the fence, stand for nothing’.
Now this maybe true – but probably much of it isn’t – but the damage he is inflicting on the only viable electoral alternative to the Coalition could be terminal, so cutting are his remarks and so willing is the right wing media willing to hang the ALP’s dirty washing out to dry.
The next former ALP leader to say something stupid was populist old duffer, Bob Hawke, ex-PM. Maybe he is going senile, maybe he meant it, but his idea that Australia should accept the world’s nuclear waste is quite possibly the most preposterous idea ever floated (including the idea floated earlier this year that England had a chance of regaining the Ashes).
His argument that Australia is geological stable is correct. His argument this plan would solve the current account deficit crisis is just plain stupid. Our deficit is being fuelled by our most voracious consumption binge in history, which is sucking in consumer imports like there’s no tomorrow. (Quite literally, as most of it is debt financed.) Hawke is proposing we continue to finance this spending spree by accepting other nation’s high-grade nuclear waste, despite not having secured a storage solution for our own low level waste from the scientific and medical community. (Australia has no nuclear power stations.)
And of course, encouraging ships laden with spent nuclear fuel to sail the oceans sounds like the worst idea since the British cavalry charge at Balaclava.
Hawke is referring to Australia’s comparative advantage in the long-term storage of nuclear waste. The nation is big, empty and geologically benign. An additional advantage is that the indigenous communities who occupy the unwanted land, which would be used to store the waste, can be easily cowed into accepting any deal. I can imagine how the residents of Sydney’s eastern suburbs would react to such a proposal in their backyard. But surely if it is safe enough to bury nuclear waste under an Aboriginal community in Western Australia, it is safe enough to bury under Bondi or Campbeltown.
Coalition Health Minister Tony Abbot, who, like his colleague at the Foreign Office rarely has anything useful to say, has called Hawke’s proposals ‘visionary’ and then used them to taunt the ALP leadership over party division.
Old and/or bold ex-leaders should just fade into the background and keep their snide comments or stupid ideas to themselves. If they want to get ‘political’ all over again, they should stand for election, not abuse their privileged position from the sidelines. Latham and Hawke should bite their tongues.
Ironically, the one political leader who would know when to shut-up is John Howard. So wily a political campaigner is he and so dedicated to the conservative cause, that you cannot imagine him doing anything to damage his party’s electoral chances.
Wednesday, September 28, 2005
The Dover heresy
Astonishingly, the administrators at the Dover school, where students maybe forced to learn about intelligent design in their biology class, must read out the following statement to the students, before they commence work on evolution.
With consent from parents, children were allowed to be excused from hearing this message, but horrifically, the teachers themselves could not be excused.
"The Pennsylvania Academic Standards require students to learn about Darwin's Theory of Evolution and eventually to take a standardized test of which evolution is a part.
Because Darwin's Theory is a theory, it continues to be tested as new evidence is discovered. The Theory is not a fact. Gaps in the Theory exist for which there is no evidence. A theory is defined as a well-tested explanation that unifies a broad range of observations.
Intelligent Design is an explanation of the origin of life that differs from Darwin's view. The reference book, Of Pandas and People, is available for students who might be interested in gaining an understanding of what Intelligent Design actually involves.
With respect to any theory, students are encouraged to keep an open mind. The school leaves the discussion of the Origins of Life to individual students and their families. As a Standards-driven district, class instruction focuses upon preparing students to achieve proficiency on Standards-based assessments."
The great thing about this statement is that it can be adapted to suit any particular concept or theory that is contrary to your world view.
Thus, global warming could be taught in American schools with a similar caveat:
The Pennsylvania Academic Standards require students to learn about Global Warming
Darwin's Theory of Evolutionand eventually to take a standardized test of which global warmingevolutionis a part.Because Global Warming
Darwin's Theoryis a theory, it continues to be tested as new evidence is discovered. The Theory is not a fact. Gaps in the Theory exist for which there is no evidence. A theory is defined as a well-tested explanation that unifies a broad range of observations.Coincidence
Intelligent Designis an explanation of why the planet is warmingthe origin of lifethat differs from climatologists'Darwin'sview. The reference book, SynchrodestinyOf Pandas and People, is available for students who might be interested in gaining an understanding of what CoincidenceIntelligent Designactually involves.With respect to any theory, students are encouraged to keep an open mind. The school leaves the discussion of the thawing of the tundra/melting of the icecaps/warming of the oceans*
Origins of Lifeto individual students and their families. As a Standards-driven district, class instruction focuses upon preparing students to achieve proficiency on Standards-based assessments.*delete as appropriate
Or even more usefully, it could be used to allow 7th Grade kids to make up their own minds about why we fall out of trees:
The Pennsylvania Academic Standards require students to learn about Newton's
Darwin'sTheory of GravityEvolutionand eventually to take a standardized test of which gravityevolutionis a part.Because Newton's
Darwin'sTheory is a theory, it continues to be tested as new evidence is discovered. The Theory is not a fact. Gaps in the Theory exist for which there is no evidence. A theory is defined as a well-tested explanation that unifies a broad range of observations.Sticky Objects
Intelligent Designis an explanation of why we fall out of treesthe origin of lifethat differs from Newton'sDarwin'sview. The reference book, Humpty DumptyOf Pandas and People, is available for students who might be interested in gaining an understanding of what Sticky ObjectsIntelligent Designactually involves.With respect to any theory, students are encouraged to keep an open mind. The school leaves the discussion of the orbit of the Earth around the Sun
Origins of Lifeto individual students and their families. As a Standards-driven district, class instruction focuses upon preparing students to achieve proficiency on Standards-based assessments.
America is threatened with becoming a laughing stock if the Courts decide that intelligent design can be taught as a legimate alternative to - not just Darwin's- theory of evolution.
Unsurprisingly George W. Bush has waded into the arguemet, the President himself being something of an advocate of intelligent design.
But surely the existence of the President himself is proof that there is no such thing as intelligent design. After all, who would have invented him?
Tuesday, September 27, 2005
Phase 1 holiday snaps
http://www.geocities.com/buckwells_du7/holiday.htm
Sorry about the delay.
Dover sole in the dock
A number of parents and future parents of children at the school in Pennsylvania are claiming that intelligent design is simply camouflaged religion – and as such – should not be taught in American public schools, following a 1987 ruling which blocked the teaching of creationism.
It is deemed a landmark case, as although the court decision will only bind if and how intelligent design is taught within a small catchment, it has wider implications across the nation – and it could be argued, around the world.
Like all things ‘public’ in the USA, the school curriculum is democratised. The locally elected board can determine its content. Last year, the board in Dover voted to approve the teaching of intelligent design, as a theoretical scientific alternative to evolution in explaining biological diversity.
In a nutshell, intelligent design proponents claim that biological objects like the ‘eye’ are simply too complex to have formed through an ‘undirected’ process such as evolution. Moreover, they suggest that as some biological systems cannot function, or have evolved, without all their components already being in place. Therefore, evolution cannot be the mechanism which has created life as we know it(2) .
Who or what created and directed the development of complex organisms or organs is not dwelled upon by proponents, thus a ‘god’ is not even mentioned as one of the possibilities. Consequently, advocates claim, intelligent design is not a religious doctrine.
Intelligent design is, of course, patent bunkum. But is its advocates’ argument sufficient to see it pushed down the throats of American children? And from there, where will it end?
It has become a matter for the courts to decide, not teachers, scientists, government or parents. The plaintiffs in the case are arguing that intelligent design is – without doubt – a religious doctrine. They argue that seminal texts on the subject are simply older documents with a ‘find and replace’ run to insert the words ‘intelligent design’, instead of ‘creationism’.
But it remains a heated debate. A recent article “Intelligent design - damaging good science and good theology”
Most of the online opinion discussion was devoted to trying to define the bounds of science - ie does intelligent design present falsifiable hypotheses - and if not in which, if any, school class it should be taught.(3)
But in the Dover case the judges may have quite different parameters to consider. Simply put, the plaintiffs must prove that intelligent design is a religious doctrine and therefore should not be taught in any class. Conversely, the defendants must prove that intelligent design is not a religious doctrine and can therefore be taught in any class the curriculum board sees fit.
What is and is not ‘science’ does not seem to enter the equation, as not all that is not scientific is religious and not all that is not religious is scientific.
The judge should therefore be looking at the varying definitions of ‘religion’. A brief search of dictionaries on the internet (that bastion of absolute knowledge) throws up the following useful/useless concepts on what constitutes religion:
- Belief in and reverence for a supernatural power or powers regarded as creator and governor of the universe.
- A personal or institutionalized system grounded in such belief and worship.
- A set of beliefs, values, and practices based on the teachings of a spiritual leader.
- A cause, principle, or activity pursued with zeal or conscientious devotion.
So it will all boil down to semantics in the end.
For me, it appears that the label ‘intelligent design’ makes a presumption that something/someone is doing the designing. Any reasonable person would argue that simply not speculating on whom or what is doing the designing is insufficient to keep intelligent design outside the bounds of religion, as there are certain conditions to which the designer must correspond. Ie the designer would have to be omnipresent and timeless and that their/its/her/his existence can neither be proved nor disproved and is therefore a supernatural power. The ‘Creator’ or the ‘creator’ is a matter of faith and therefore a religious presupposition.
This semiotic morass through which the judge must wade, will have important implications for the interface between religion and science in public life. The plaintiffs’ failure could see intelligent design taught in science classes across America, as this is undoubtedly the target audience of its protagonists. And acceptance in America could well predicate growing tolerance of intelligent design as an alternative theory to evolution around the world. This would be a catastrophe and the result of a predetermined effort by a zealous religious cabal to indoctrinate children into particular religious and dangerously anthropocentric world views.
Despite what Thomas Kuhn said, science is defined by questioning, falsification and opening minds in the exploration and description of the physical world. Intelligent design is about closing minds, accepting doctrine and championing the assertion that if it looks too difficult, pin it on a god. Surely not what modern spiritualism is all about?
It is expected that the judge’s verdict will be handed down in early December.
Notes:The Dover sole is a bottom dwelling fish, which after a free-swimming juvenile stage, eventually settles on its side and lives a life on the seabed. As it matures to adulthood, its eyes, gills, mouth and fins migrate around the body. You could argue that this a silly design for flatfish as obvious answer to a life on the sea bed seems to be to flatten dorsally, like skates and rays.
If the Dover sole was designed, it was flawed. If the designer was flawed, then it is not all-knowing. If the designer is not all-knowing, how can it be omnipresent and timeless.
Of course, the real answer lies in a proper understanding of evolution (See Dawkins, R Climbing Mount Improbable). Once the Dover sole had begun to follow its evolutionary course of laying on its side, flat on the sea bed, there was no ‘going backwards’, against evolutionary pressure, once it realised that option was not perhaps the best way of flattening yourself into the sand.
This argument is stupid. Even the human eye is a crap design, with nerves transmitting the signals from the light sensitive cells to the brain, running across the top of those cells. Surely a less flawed design would have had them running behind the retina?
But why do intelligent design proponents pick on whole biological organs? Sure the eye is a pretty complex, but then so is the cell, the cell’s nucleus, the double helix spiral of DNA, the atom, the sub-atomic particles etc which make up matter. The reason: the Bible doesn’t talk about god making the quark on the First Day.
- Karl Popper, the Godfather of scientific demarcation, adopted the model that a theory is only scientific if it can be proved false. Thus, when hypotheses are tested and proved false, scientific progress is made, in a form of creative destruction.
Monday, September 26, 2005
Shoddy government found out by Hicks
By becoming a UK citizen, Hicks could command the protection of the British government, which has so far demanded and secured the release of all nine of its own political prisoners held by the US. Hicks’s own Australian government has been one of the few staunch allies of the courts, effectively abandoning any of its citizens held there.
But in a chance conversation about the recent Ashes series with his lawyer, it came to light that Hicks’s mother – though also Australian – holds UK citizenship, thus granting Hicks the right to do the same. As a result, in application, issues of character do not enter the equation – UK citizenship is Hick’s right.
Now the race is on. Hicks’s military ‘trial’ is scheduled to start on November 18. Applications for UK citizenship can take between 3 and 6 months, though there is no reason in law why an emergency case cannot be fast tracked.
Will the UK government stall? Will the military court proceedings be speeded up? Would the UK ask for him back if he is convicted?
Either way, it has placed the US and Australian governments in an embarrassing situation.
Australian Foreign Minister, Alexander ‘Lord’ Downer has rarely had anything constructive to say and yesterday was no exception. "If Mr Hicks and his lawyers want to try to circumvent justice by going to some other country and think that will help them, that's a matter between him and that country," he chided. He then went on to suggest Hicks’s case was somehow different as Hicks has already been charged by the illegal court and so a UK demand for his release would not necessarily be automatic.
Once in the UK, Hicks would be free to return to Australia, as – by the government’s own admission – he has broken no law in this country. Quite why he would wish to return to a country that has essentially washed its hands of any attempt to secure justice for him, is beyond me. But at least he would have the choice. And he would hardly be a ‘free’ man anyway – he wouldn’t be able to fart without Alexander Downer receiving a briefing from intelligence services.
Whatever you think of David Hicks, he has been the subject of shoddy government which has subsequently been found out. Here is a man who has been denied even the most basic standards of justice and has been haplessly abandoned by his own country for the last four years. Everyone deserves better than this from their public institutions.
Now let’s see if the British government can act with a modicum of decency, thus far lacking from Bush and Howard.
Friday, September 23, 2005
The dry continent gets thirsty
Continuing drought has forced Brisbane City Council to implement Level 2 water restrictions. Residents will still be able to water their gardens, but only using a hand held hose, between the hours of 7pm and 7am on alternate days. Cars can only be washed with buckets, swimming pools can only be filled during garden watering times and hosing concrete driveways – presumably in the hope they will grow – is banned.
Brisbane’s principal water sources, the Wivenhoe and Somerset dams are now at 37% capacity. If summer rains are as poor as the last 5 years, we’re in trouble.
Wivenhoe’s capacity is some 1.16 million megalitres and Somerset’s is 380,000. To gain some perspective, at full capacity, with zero inflow, Wivenhoe and Somerset could supply Brisbane for 2,655 days at average use. Currently, we have 980 days left.
Medium term policy responses have focused on water supply management. As the population grew, more dam storage capacity was identified and implemented. The only demand management measures considered were short term – as part of periodic dry spell water restrictions. But even these have not been particularly onerous.
Australians have developed a close affinity with water. They are moving to live close to it in their droves and pay top dollar for a home by the sea, or the next best thing – a home adjacent to a tidal canal development. Celebrity demographer Benard Salt has dubbed this the third Australian culture shift, after the bush and the suburb.
And they use it profligately too. Australians are not only the highest global per capita emitters of CO2, but they are also right up there in per capita consumption of reticulated water.
It would funny, if it were not tragic: Australians live on the driest continent on the planet, yet have backyards as lush green as the European gardens on which they were modelled, thanks to nearly half of our drinking water being thrown onto the grass.
Therefore, half of all the infrastructure spending to get fresh water from Wivenhoe to Brisbane – approximately 80km – is spent on servicing resident’s thirsty gardens and swimming pools.
Policy makers are only now beginning to get to grips with the challenges to growth that their dehydrated continent imposes on them. In South East Queensland, the population is projected to rise by 1 million people over the next 20 years. The State Government has recently stated its goal is to accommodate this increase with no overall rise in reticulated demand. Queenslanders will have to invest in water harvesting and change their attitudes to water supply to meet this challenge. There is little alternative as few appropriate dam sites remain.
This challenge does not require inventing something new. As with many more ecologically sustainable practices, it is more a case of relearning lessons from the past.
Our current domestic water paradigm can be summed up by ‘single use, down the sewer’. We flush our toilets with water good enough to drink. Aboriginal Australians must despair at our foolishness. Plumbing systems must be adapted to accommodate multiple uses for the water coming onto each property or community. We need fully integrated systems, where only the poorest quality water - for which no further use can be found - enters the sewage system. Not only would this improve water efficiency, but it would also delay the need to expand sewage treatment systems, thus capturing even greater social benefits.
A parallel strategy must involve rainwater harvesting. Cath and Kim’s penchant for low density living generates swathes of suburban rooftops from which rain drains straight into our creek systems. Rainwater tanks were commonplace just 20 years ago, but now they are the exception, rather than the rule. But only recently have Councils been provided the mandate to require all (Class 1) new dwellings to install water tanks.
These water tanks will also improve flood mitigation and the health of our waterways by slowing run off. It is no irony that local flooding is an issue in times of drought, it is a direct result of poor policy.
But integrated domestic water management systems, which include provision for rainwater harvesting are long term measures which will only begin to reduce growth in demand when sufficient new housing stock has been built. It is unrealistic to expect to see significant retrofitting of integrated systems into existing dwellings and often more expensive to do so, when compared to business as usual.
Therefore, medium term measures are essential to curbing ballooning demand. A more responsive water pricing system is critical. This would provide rewards to those who use water wisely and penalise those who expect a swimming pool’s worth of drinking water should be provided as a right.
However, cultural barriers prevent water from becoming a simple commodity, to be traded like concert tickets or crude oil. But this can be overcome be blending such market mechanisms with more socialistic interpretations of water access.
Each resident could be assigned a quota of water to be consumed over a year. Those who under utilise their quota could trade with those who wish to overuse. Either way, each ‘citizen’ is guaranteed a fixed proportion of the total supply at a fixed price and each has an incentive to benefit from efficient use of water and/or investment in domestic water saving devices. Larger households would be protected from burgeoning domestic bills as the quota is assigned per person, rather than per property.
Using modelling at a fixed price, based on today’s price of water, supplied from BCC, my own household would save $68 per annum on our current bill based on such a tradeable quota system. Furthermore, Brisbane’s heaviest users might be further encouraged to reduce their consumption when faced with stumping up an additional $28.60 per person per year. Under the current billing regime, our efficient use gives us less benefit.
Water usage against billing for Brisbane and 17 Day Road| Standing charge | Kilolitres use pa | Billing usage at 85c per kl | Total price | Proportional use | Proportional billing | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brisbane average for Class 1 dwelling | $105 | 283 | $241 | $346 | 100% | 100% |
| 17 Day Rd (Class 1 dwelling) | $105 | 141 | $120 | $225 | 50% | 65% |
| Standing charge | Kilolitres use pa | Proportional use | Total bill (baseline) | Proportional billing | Billing based on baseline and usage | Benefit | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| High Brisbane use | $26.25 | 192 | 211% | $189.28 | 183% | $217.85 | -$28.60 |
| SEQ target (2015) | $26.25 | 91 | 100% | $103.25 | 100% | $103.25 | $0.00 |
| 17 Day Road occupant | $26.25 | 35 | 38% | $56.25 | 56% | $39.23 | +$17.02 |
Meanwhile, across agriculture and industry, a revolution in water efficiency is required. But there is evidence that a change is in the air. The Great Artesian Basin stores ancient ground water trapped deep under 1.7 million square kilometres of Australia’s Eastern interior and contains an estimated maximum of 900m megalitres. For many years unregulated bores drew on this water to irrigate the dry interior. Water surplus to agricultural requirements simply drained away to evaporate into the atmosphere. Since boring operations began, in the middle of the 19th century, the rate of extraction has been higher then replenishment and bore pressure has been dropping. Only now, following a program of regulating flow and more water efficient irrigation systems is equilibrium being reached again. But still you must question why we insist on growing two of the most water intensive agricultural products – cotton and grain fed cattle – in the middle of the desert.
Again, some progress is being made on the large masterplanned community at Springfield, south west of Brisbane. Homes have been installed with dual-reticulated systems, using rainwater and recycled grey water toilets and gardens. However, this scheme applies to just 14 homes, out of an (already) 10,000.
Inertia and poor crop planning should eventually give way to good policy. But until then, Queenslanders would be wise to start treating their water as preciously as their petrol.
Wednesday, September 21, 2005
Aussies count the pifling cost of petrol
John Howard’s government has decided to shelve its plans to increase the fuel excise duty by 0.06c in a bid to relieve the pressure on motorists’ pockets, thanks to rising oil prices.
The federal excise rate will stay at 38.143c per litre, plus 10% GST.
- Cost of fuel (including retailer margin): 75.00c
- Addition of Excise (38.143c): 113.14c
- GST (10%): 11.314c
- Bowser price: 124.46c
- Less Qld subsidy -8.354c
- Qld bowser price 116.10c
Revenue from the excise duty increase had been earmarked to encourage oil companies to produce more environmentally friendly fuels, which would make motoring more petrol efficient. Now it will be used as a financial sop to the voter-cum-motorist, to treat the symptoms rather than get to grips with the cause.
“Australian motorists are already suffering,” Howard has claimed and rises, no matter how small, would not be welcome.
Opposition Leader, Kim Beazley, has agreed with Howard that there should be no tax increase at this time.
Howard’s easy political score epitomises the sorry state of the debate over rising fuel prices. Motorists are an electorally powerful constituency, rather than an effective lobby group. They are difficult to oppose, yet are easy to appease. In Queensland, the State government even subsidises the price at the pump to a tune of 8.354c per litre.
Though Australian bowser prices have increased significantly in the past 12 months in response to higher oil prices, the Aussie motorist still cruises around in a relatively benign fiscal environment, particularly when compared to Europe. This low motoring tax culture is born of the historically perceived tyranny of distance: Australia is a big country and everyone else lives a very, very long way away.
This fiscal environment has failed to encourage efficient petrol consumption. Inordinately large engines are de rigour and high levels of car ownership has allowed a car dependent urban form to develop. Australia has a car obsessed youth rivalled only by the USA.
In reality, Australia is the most urbanised developed nation outside Singapore and Monaco. Its SUVs and 6 cylinder saloons spend much of their time guzzling fuel between the suburbs and shopping malls, work and schools, as urban sprawl has pushed services and amenities far away from our front yards.
Driver-friendly Australia manifests itself on many levels. Road funding and infrastructure expansion is robust and then conversely, on a local scale, pedestrians are made to feel unwelcome when crossing roads, encouraged to clear off as quickly as possible, lest the traffic flow be delayed a moment longer. Rarely would you expect to park your vehicle. In general, the Aussie motorist is struggling no more than the Aussie ‘battler’ is fighting to make ends meet, despite 25 years of income growth.
But there is an apparent conundrum associated with taxing fuel, which is a result of the political cowardice of our leaders when faced with angry petrol users.
Petrol is taxed (twice, even) to discourage its consumption. This is a legitimate instrument of social policy. Both tobacco and alcohol are taxed heavily, to discourage us from enjoying too much of a debauched life.
Another role of taxation is to raise revenue for public goods. The taxation of tobacco and alcohol will in part fund the provision of health care to treat symptoms of their excessive use. The direct hypothecation is not made - and for good reason (as we can’t have people picking and choosing which parts of the social contract they fund) - but the revenue raised from petrol excise will go some way to funding the provision of ever more road infrastructure.
An indirect user pays system is hence in place for motorists. But where alcohol and tobacco revenues will be spent on amelioration of the worst aspects of their consumption, funding more road infrastructure actually encourages the use of the car, through the phenomena of induced demand, thus nullifying one reason for taxing it in the first place. More car use leads to a louder political voice for motorists which leads to greater provision of roads and hence more use.
Governments therefore find themselves locked into spiralling provision of road infrastructure to the benefit of the motorist and oil companies, paid for out of burgeoning revenues from its taxation. Governments yet have the courage to stand up to the motorist electoral block and restrict spending on roads and/or tax petrol correctly in an attempt to reflect the true costs of its consumption.
Tuesday, September 20, 2005
Mi' hols - Part II
From Wednesday we had a hire car and we drove south from Airlie Beach to Eungella National Park. About 100 km of this trip is on the mid-reaches of the Bruce Highway, Route 1, part of the federal highway network that encircles the mainland.
The Bruce Highway section of Route 1 joins Brisbane to Cairns. The one abiding memory of it is that it was strewn with dead animals. I remember the first 10 kangaroos I saw on my first return trip here, 20 years ago, were quietly resting by the side of the road. This carnage used to stretch all the way to Brisbane, but it is less common now down south. However between Proserpine and Mackay we saw numerous kangaroos, wallabies, snakes, kites, possums and foxes (non native), all dead.
But Eungella is mountainous remnant tropical rainforest and is one of Australia’s biodiversity hotspots. There are several species, including frogs, crayfish and birds which are endemic to the area.
That said, I wouldn’t know a Gastric Brooding frog, unless I saw its babies pop out of its mouth.
By lunchtime we had climbed the escarpment to the Broken River section of the park which is renowned for its platypus. And it didn’t disappoint either. The normally shy platypus is pretty comfortable with people here and so there is no need to creep around at dawn and sit silently by the creek for an hour.
Later we took a walk up the Broken River creek system, which is absolutely stunning rainforest/creek scenery. Spotted a couple more snakes, one of them being picked off by a Kookaburra.
We stayed in a cabin down the mountain in the Finch Hatton Gorge section. Though the cabin was pretty basic, it was in the most stunning of spots, right on the National Park boundary with a creek running past. Another snake (not sure what type, but it was about 2m long and orange-brown, a bit like a Taipan…..) dropped down from the ceiling of the camp kitchen.
Thursday morning we had a couple of hours to go walking before we left for the airport. We explored Finch Hatton Gorge and climbed a couple of waterfalls, before the boys decided they needed the toilet and we had to run back.
Eungella is a beautiful place, every bit the match of the amazing Lamington National Park. When the boys are older, we must return to go off the track system and climb through the gorges and forests.
16th – 19th September - Lennox Head
Following an overnight stop at home, we hit the road south on Friday into NSW to stay at Lake Ainsworth near Lennox Head/Byron Bay – about 200km south of Brisbane.
Despite leaving in the sunshine and the weather being fine for most of the trip, the forecast suggested Friday night was going to be a bit rough. But we still spent most of the afternoon at the beach, a mere 150 yards from the tent.
By dusk however, things were picking up. And then by the time we got the kids in bed we got slammed by a SEVERE storm. In breakfast terms we had the full works: lightening, thunder, lashing rain and high winds. We were forced to abandon two decimated tents and some of the group retreated to their cars for the night. It was all hands on deck to prevent the tarp being blown out to sea.
But while most tents were buckling under the pressure, there was barely a ripple in the tent we had brought all the way from England.
Fortunately the really heavy rain lasted just 15 mins (despite rain carrying on for an hour or so more) as other storm cells passed us by. But the strong winds continued all night, making it all pretty unbearable. By dawn, the campsite looked like downtown Sarajevo.
With many of the group being - at least once upon a time – Poms, with stoical resistance and Dunkirk spirit (without the retreat bit), we slowly picked up the pieces the next morning, without loosing anyone.
That afternoon we walked along the magnificent Seven Mile Beach to Lennox Head, being battered by the continuing wind all the way.
I understand that memories are fickle things. When reflecting back on say, a holiday, you will always attach greater significance to episodes towards the end, rather than the beginning. Therefore, if things are bad at the start of the holiday, but gradually improve, you will be left with fond memories overall.
And so it will be with this break. From Saturday afternoon the wind disappeared and we had glorious weather and a great time.
On Sunday we ventured into the fabled Byron Bay. Byron Bay is a place full of contradictions. 20 years ago it was famous for just being the most easterly point on the Australian mainland. Today, it is famous for having one of the highest rates of unemployment in Australia (about 19%), being the left-field and alternative therapy capital of the nation and one of the most expensive places to stay outside Sydney. Its where the baby boomers settle for their 'sea change' and rediscover their hippy past and where the work shy come and bludge. The day we were there a giant Peace Rally echoed across the beach.
Either way, it is a great little town with bustling streets and devoid of anything branded or corporatised. I can’t even recall seeing a McDonalds (though there was a subway). It has a fantastic beach and the Cape (Cape Byron) is simply stunning, with views for hundreds of kilometres north (to Tweed Heads) and south down the coast and also inland to the rainforest World Heritage area. You get a great view of Mount Warning - the ancient volcano at the centre of it all - so named by Cook in 1770 as a warning (funnily enough) of the impending rocks of Tweed Heads.
There were too many cars though. It sometimes feels like their are more cars than people. But this doesn’t appear to worry the locals, who as pedestrians, show scant regard to road conventions and walk the streets as apparent equals of the car – whey-hey!
Later that day we strolled up to the lighthouse – the subject of half the postcards sold in town (the other half devoted to the bikini, or lack thereof). From there we definitely spotted several dolphins and we may even have been looking at a Humpback Whale migrating northwards, but being a couple of kms out to sea, it was difficult to tell.
My father and Kay had joined us by Sunday night. They were heading north to Brisbane to house sit for a while and hence our paths crossed in northern NSW.
On Monday, after a morning on the wind-less beach and lunch in the sun, we packed up and headed north.
Mi' hols
Airlie Beach is something of a misnomer. Perhaps a more befitting name is ‘Muddy Flats’ or ‘Backpackers’ Retreat’. It has no beach; its sea front is a modified mangrove and it is fast developing as a rival to Cairns as an adventure tourist playground: not much in itself, but certainly in the middle of it all.
Walking down the high street you would struggle to hear and Australian accent.
Day 1: Crocodile Safari
Though sharks are currently leading the crocs 3-2 in the human fatality stakes this year, another croc-death in late 2003 (in fact the day after we first arrived) underlines just how dangerous these beasts can be.
As such, you expect these things to life ‘out in bush’, using Billy Connolly’s parlance, pointing over my shoulder away from the sea. It comes as quite a shock then to see them living on the Proserpine River, a few kms out of out, at the end of people’s back yards and next to fishing spots.
From Airlie Beach you can take a great tour through the tidal mangroves to see Estuarine Crocodiles, aka ‘Salties’. About pretty healthy population of 200 adults life along this river, feasting on mud-crabs and barramundi. We got to see 6 of these adults – up close - and another handful of cute little baby crocs.
We could have been in for even more excitement though. It had been reported that one of the crocs had a fisherman’s net caught in its teeth. Dead set, if we found it, out guide was going to leap out the boat and try and free it.
Alas, we couldn’t find it and we had to settle for the other fella running through the bush catching tree snakes and frill necked lizards on the afternoon trip through the bush. Also spotted was Australia’s largest flying bird, the Wedge Tailed Eagle.
A nice lunch time BBQ and afternoon tea (from a billy, of course) and damper were thrown in to boot.
Day 2: The Whitsunday Islands
No trip to this area is complete without a trip around the islands, in particular to visit Whitehaven Beach. This 7km stretch of nearly pure white sand will never fail to take your breath away each time you see it.
James will now also remember it for the place he lost his first tooth. It had been wobbly for a few days, but after jumping off the back of the boat to swim to shore with snorkel in mouth it was never going to last long. And finding a white tooth on a white sea bed in 10 feet of water was not really an option, despite James’s concerns that he wouldn’t get a tooth fairy pay-day. One day we shall return and do some bush camping here, to allow us more time to search for it.
The first stop for the day was South Molle Island. In 1988 I spent Christmas here with my father, with a broken arm. Couldn’t do much except bush walk for two days. But the hour we were allowed there was somewhere between being too much (no time to do anything worthwhile) or too little (not enough time to do anything worthwhile).
Later in the day we went snorkelling off Whitsunday Island. James was pretty comfortable – albeit with a float – and loved every minute of it. But Matthew was a bit panicked and spent most of the time clinging to my back. When he did put his face/snorkel in the water he was pleasantly surprised, but not enough to dispel the terror.
Many of the fringing reefs inside the Great Barrier Reef suffer from being a little murky, with fine sediment being churned up in the 30km leeside lagoon. Whitsunday Island was no exception, with really only 10-12m visibility. Despite this, the coral was abundant and healthy, but few fish were apparent. We will have to take the boys to Lady Elliott Island to experience the reef in all its splendour.
Day 3: Conway National Park
On our last full day we walked a little way through Conway National Park. This is the mainland section of the mountain range that once incorporated the Whitsunday Islands, before post-ice age rising sea levels filled in the valleys and created the islands.
Will post the rest, along with pics tomorrow.
Thursday, September 08, 2005
Are these people the first global warming refugees?
As an adjunct to “Weather is the real warning” Non Governmental Organisations are at pains to warns us that the world must prepare for floods (no pun intended) of ‘environmental refugees’.
As global warming cause sea levels to rise, whole nations – such as the Maldives and Bangladesh – could be devastated as the land of their nation disappears beneath the ocean.
Exacerbating this crisis, climate change could render whole regions inhospitable and severe weather could force millions to uproot. Consequently, we should be planning our services and devising mechanisms to accommodate these environmental refugees and offer them new places to make home.
So where does Hurricane Katrina fit into this?
Climate change models repeatedly predict that extreme weather events will occur more frequently as the planet warms. Certainly Katrina was extreme, but was she caused by global warming?
The answer, of course, will always be ‘impossible to tell’. But, as ever the folks at www.realclimate.org provide an excellent insight and a meaningful analogy as why those who dismiss global warming should pause for thought.
"Due to [the] semi-random nature of weather, it is wrong to blame any one event, such as Katrina, specifically on global warming - and of course it is just as indefensible to blame Katrina on a long-term natural cycle in the climate."
Yet this is not the right way to frame the question. As we have also pointed out in previous posts, we can indeed draw some important conclusions about the links between hurricane activity and global warming in a statistical sense. The situation is analogous to rolling loaded dice: one could, if one was so inclined, construct a set of dice where sixes occur twice as often as normal. But if you were to roll a six using these dice, you could not blame it specifically on the fact that the dice had been loaded. Half of the sixes would have occurred anyway, even with normal dice. Loading the dice simply doubled the odds. In the same manner, while we cannot draw firm conclusions about one single hurricane, we can draw some conclusions about hurricanes more generally. In particular, the available scientific evidence indicates that it is likely that global warming will make - and possibly already is making - those hurricanes that form more destructive than they otherwise would have been."
It is possible then that the uncommonly destructive force unleashed by Hurricane Katrina is a result of carbon emissions from the combustion of fossil fuels. Therefore the hapless folk of New Orleans, who are sheltering in community halls in Texas, could well be the first of the many millions of environmental refugees who will soon be roaming the planet looking for a place to settle.
It was fortunate that hurricane hit the USA and not – say – Nauru, or else Australia’s immigration detention centres would be overflowing with unwanted arrivals.
Wednesday, September 07, 2005
Adrian gets us all jealous
It is a great twist on your usual run-of-the-mill web log (this one, for example), with some groovy functionality, such as the weather report from wherever you are at that precise moment and the ‘My Map’ page which traces your route around the globe (Useful, I guess, for InterPol).
Of course a travel blog is only as good as how often it is kept up to date – so keep at it, Adrian.
Peak oil does not point to tunnels
Last week, Brisbane City Council’s civic cabinet
The Lord Mayor and the Labor Council majority are all committed to some degree to expanding the road capacity available to the private motor vehicle through the city centre. The Mayor hopes to spend $4.7bn over the next 25 years on building five tunnels beneath the CBD as part of the TransApex scheme
The peak oil discussion paper presented the - always conflicting - evidence of when the peak will occur (there is no ‘if’). It also looked at the outlook for global demand and how these two factors would affect the oil price. It then considered potential mitigation scenarios and how rising oil prices will impact on council’s operational costs in the short to medium term and on policy in the long term.
Alas, the Lord Mayor will never be diverted from his tunnel building cause. Apparently afterwards he labelled the authors of the report ‘zealots’.
But can the Mayor afford to be so bullish about oil prices into the future? With his entire political career staked on delivering ever more road space for oil-guzzling motor cars, I guess he has to be, whatever evidence presented. The mental gymnastics required for doublethink are prerequisite to such can-do thinking.
The peak oil report alluded to the concept of path dependency: the outcomes which today’s decisions on long term (50 years+) transport infrastructure and land use tie us into. It noted that “The strategic challenge posed by peak oil is to consider which investments may represent forgone opportunity and which, in contrast, present opportunities to capitalise on multiple opportunities and deliver associated benefits.” (p. 17)
In other words (!), we should consider the risks associated with peak oil - such as how sustainable the tunnels will be, when we are paying $3 per litre for unleaded - and look at how money might be better spent before we blithely set out on 25-year program of digging.
But Brisbane’s tunnels have a further complicating dimension to the aforementioned decision making paradigm.
If it will relieve congestion at all (and it is many people’s assertion, including my own, that it will not), the NSBT and AL will only work if all five tunnels of the TransApex scheme are eventually built. The NSBT draft Environmental Impact Statement 2005 spelled this out: leave the job half-done and you are left with bottlenecks on roads around each tunnel entrance.
(Or, as the report put it: the benefits will accrue only when the full scheme is rolled out.)
So the commencement of the NSBT and AL locks Brisbane into rolling out a specified program of infrastructure, stretching out 25 years. The issues associated with building a tunnel for cars in 25 years time are unforseen and cannot be realistically assessed, but yet we are effectively making a decision today that they must be built. All this, based on the Lord Mayor gaining 42% of the popular vote in one election in 2004; hardly a mandate for the next 25 years.
Decision making on a program of multiple implementation of infrastructure projects over the long term needs bail out points, where a strategic/political change in direction is a realistic option that costs much less than $4.7bn and forgone opportunities. The current TransApex scheme fails here. And it is not just the direct costs either. Being locked into this 25-year path to the future has boundless implications for the liveability, health and future of Brisbane.
And the Lord Mayor thought he was just a building a tunnel to fix a congestion problem…..
There is now an anti-tunnel e-petition available on the Queensland Parliament website. I would strongly encourage all Brisbane residents to read it and sign it.
Costello decides modesty is best policy
Now Costello is not the modest type: he never misses an opportunity to blow his own trumpet. Indeed he has even evolved a double-jointed spine to facilitate this.
Not content with wondering around and nodding and smiling courteously for each rebuilding project, at every opportunity he mentions that he could only be so generous thanks to his great stewardship of the Australian economy. It is due to our greater wealth, that we could afford to give this aid.
Peter Costello: modest and tactful.
Tuesday, September 06, 2005
Bush takes charge. Oh dear
Contrary to what Tony Blair may say, and regardless of his ideology, I believe that Dubya is an imbecile of the highest magnitude and appears barely capable of stringing two words together, let alone heading up a complex inquiry like this.
Of course, it is a shrewd political move on his part. (He was probably told to do it.) I guess the best way to divert any blame away from your administration is to head up the inquiry yourself.
Monday, September 05, 2005
Big oil not the only ones cleaning up
From Sean Leahy's cartoons from the Courier Mail
Clearly the death toll in 'Norleans isn't sensationally high enough.
I see authorities have had to supplement it by doing some killing of their own.
BBC News
America is seems such a civilised place. I wish Australia could be more like it....
Sunday, September 04, 2005
Wallabies slump to 5th loss on trot
The Wallaby side has been decimated by injury and is nothing without...
Larkham, Gitteau, Mortlock, Latham, Sailor, Flatley, Paul, Vickerman and Lyons.
Or, maybe it is. Old hands have been wanting to see Rogers at five eighth for some time and both Mitchell and Gerrard looked great when running directly at the ABs, who fell off tackling them on many occaisions. Both players must look at their defensive positional play though.
Alas, I missed the second half (Brisbane's RiverFire fireworks), but it seems most punters were happy with the ref, this time. For once he was not the focus of after match-discussion on why one team lost. (Though even in the first half there was still far too much flopping over to kill the ball (by both teams) - all done in the name of 'rucking', though no binding was ever evident.)
My take on this year's tri-nations (up to last night) was summed up in two earlier posts "The trouble with modern game" and "My crisis with Rugby Union Football". I also read this on ABC News ("Wallabies, All Blacks admit cheating in rucks") which backs up my point - coaches are admitting to telling their players to cheat in a game.
Being a rugby union coach (albeit for lowly Under 7s), you do all you can to teach them about sportsmanship. What do you say next year, when they are older, "OK lads, when the refs not looking, go offside" or "If it looks like they're going to get the ball back, stick your hand in and stop it."
Humm.
Friday, September 02, 2005
Bush says 'no thanks' to foreign troops. Why?
They would appear to need it. Law and order is breaking down, stricken communities are still requiring rescue and emergency supplies and with ships stranded on highways, its going to need a hell of clean up. Water borne pandemics are probably only just around the corner.
Bush has declared the American people will do just fine, thanks. They don't need our help.
Or could it be that Bush feels the American public would be indignant at seeing foreign troops stationed on their home soil, regardless of their presence as part of a relief effort?
Currently and officially, there are American forces operating and stationed in over 144 nations in the world, from Uzbekistan to Panama to Cuba. They have been in South Korea since the early 50s, Japan since 1945 and Saudi Arabia since 1990.
They are unlikely to ever leave Iraq, at least while oil remains to be extracted. Once in, they are in it for the long term.
In addition, a covert presence is likely in, well, everywhere really.
In many of these nations, the government will be supportive of the security US forces provides them. In others, it seems like they have become part of the furniture. But at ground level, the presence of foreign troops on your home soil will be the cause of anxiety and unease.
Attacks on women by US personnel in Japan and Korea, or deaths from road accidents caused by drunken squadies are a constant source of tension. Statistically, it is probably the case that US forces make better citizens than the locals. Being 'ambassadors for their nation' they are on their best behaviour. But the tension their presence generates, though irrational or narrow-minded, is real.
And at the extreme, the presence of US troops in the Middle East is a catalyst for open and indiscriminate guerilla warfare, ultimately causing the deaths of hundreds of people every month.
Mr Bush now ought to realise that though he may believe that the projection of US military power is a benign and ultimately democratising influence, the experience on the ground, of foreign troops invading your territory, pride, laws and privacy can be upsetting in the extreme and is rightfullt resented by the people.
Thursday, September 01, 2005
Pics from Charlie Moreland campsiteal
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