Thursday, December 08, 2005
Howard’s short-termism a disaster for climate change
The Howard government has released its latest “Tracking to the Kyoto Target” report, for 2005. This annual statement measures Australia’s progress towards meeting its greenhouse gas emissions reduction objectives, as agreed at Kyoto.

Although Australia never ratified the Kyoto Protocol, the government did make a commitment to meet its allocated target during the accounting period; that is CO2 emissions at 108% of 1990 levels, between 2008-2012.

On a positive note, Australia continues to be on target. Average annual emissions of CO2 between 2008 and 2012 – with mitigation measures adopted - will be 585 Mt (mega tonnes), 8% higher than the 1990 level of 543 Mt.

Furthermore, over the last 12 months the Howard government has taken the positive step of actually recognising that human induced global warming is a serious and lasting threat. While most of the planet understood this years ago, this is a big step for the current government, which has for a long time remained unconvinced by the whole thing. Such is the government’s concern, John Howard has agreed to the Asia-Pacific partnership on clean development and climate, a process that will run parallel to Kyoto and include some of the planet’s biggest gross emitters of greenhouse gases.

That’s the good news. The downside – and it’s mostly downside – is that the Tracking report reveals considerable weaknesses in the government’s long term strategy for tackling CO2 emissions. This is political short-termism at its very worse. The report is a litany of poor excuses, obfuscation and spin.

By 2010, ALL (well 99.9% anyway) of Australia’s emissions reductions will have been achieved by changes in land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF), mostly by reducing Australia’s shocking record of land clearing. Virtually all other CO2 emitting sectors will have ballooned out to levels far and above 1990; transport energy by a massive 53%!

But if this is allowed within Kyoto accounting rules, what’s the big deal?

In relying solely on emissions reductions from LULUCF, Australia is storing up big trouble for the future. Since 1990, CO2 emissions from land clearing have plummeted from 128 Mt pa to 52 Mt pa. The long-term trend for emissions from land clearing is projected to stabilise and in 2010 to be only slightly lower (at 43 Mt pa) than today. Therefore, all emission reduction potential from land clearing has already been exhausted, there is no further give in the system from this sector. (See graph below.)

When combined with reforestation (carbon sequestration), LULUCF has consistently been a net emitter since 1990. By 2010, the LULUCF account will be adding 21Mt of CO2 to the atmosphere each year; representing a growth in emissions of 3% on its own.

In any post-Kyoto world, when diligent nations will be seeking to further reduce their emissions to below their 2010 levels, Australia will be left in an impossible position, as only fractional reductions will be available through LULUCF. Australia will have to make reductions on other accounts (such as energy, industry and agriculture), all which are currently spiralling into the stratosphere.

To go back in time, briefly; this is precisely why Australia negotiators fought long and hard to have LULUCF included under Kyoto accounting rules (only then of course, to not ratify the Protocol - after nearly trashing it). In 1997 – the year the Kyoto Protocol was signed - Australia had already reduced emissions from land clearing to pretty much today’s levels. The government then knew it could achieve its 108% ‘commitment’ with minimal action in any other sector than land clearing.

This is also why the Australian government will never again even consider any future CO2 emissions reduction regime. Current government policy is supporting a blow-out in all emitting sectors; through road building, subsidies to the extraction industry and encouraging the profligate waste of every single resource available to Australians. This is why John Howard exuded smoke and mirrors when he agreed to the Asia-Pacific deal on climate change – a document so far lacking any rigour and currently running to just two sides of A4 paper; and already subsequently all but forgotten.

Be under no illusions, the Asia deal is a sham and a political stunt, designed to assuage criticism from others who take the threat of global warming more seriously than John Howard. While the public service buckles under the strain of government imposed targets, Howard’s reluctance to use targets in this case reminds us of just how much his government is in hoc to business interests.

Australia will continue to be a climate change recalcitrant. The Tracking report demonstrates that Australian CO2 emissions are simply out of control. This, while some climate scientists estimate that to allay global warming, CO2 emissions will need to be cut to 40% of current levels by the end of the century. Based on recent trends, Australia will make no contribution to this global challenge, and most likely will simply free ride, continuing to pour CO2 into the atmosphere.

Indeed, the report even admitted that emissions in 2020 will be at 122% of 1990 levels, showing an acceleration in rates of polluting, from 3.8% per decade to 13%.

Despite the smug assurances from the Howard government that Australia will meet its commitments, this report is a disgrace.

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