Wednesday, January 24, 2007
Water update
What would South East Queensland give for rain like this?

Flooding has cut off several towns in central and western Queensland. Some areas have experienced more rain in 2 days than they did in the whole of 2006. More than 200mm has fallen, replenishing stock watering holes and bursting over dry creek banks.

Brisbane and South East Queensland continue to stare down the barrel of a gun. Dam levels are at 22.90% and January is nearly gone. The weather outlook is staying ‘fine’.

‘Fine’ is also what the Water Commissioner thinks we’re doing. Ms Nosworthy remains strangely sanguine. "No, there's no crisis." she has insisted.

She is obviously showing great faith in the latest meteorological forecasts (here and here) that suggest the extended negative ENSO conditions are on the wane, and that the east coast will return to long run climate averages mid-2007.

Level 5 water restrictions were originally planned to kick-in when the dam levels hit 20% (all things being equal, at the end of March), however, Ms Nosworthy, seems to have plans of her own. She has refused to state what the restrictions will be, and has even suggested that Level 5 will not be implemented until June, if it doesn’t rain.

A number of projects will come on stream in the next 12 months, diversifying the regions supply. Waste water recycling and desalination (on the Gold Coast) are definitely coming. Rainwater tanks are steadily being rolled out. Bore water is proving more difficult.

But even after the implementation of these projects the system of dams will still provide the vast majority of water to the region and this remains reliant on rainfall. Furthermore, consumption is drifting upwards again, as ‘restriction fatigue’ kicks in. And the latest meteorological reports, though perhaps more positive than they have been for a while, still only detect a 40-50% chance of above average rainfall. (Therefore it is more likely that there will be below average rainfall.)

So Ms Nosworthy’s nonchalance seems a little misplaced. She is not a politician, but she should at least be briefing politicians to prepare us for bad news or future scenarios.

Urban residents have not yet faced ‘hardships’ (as claimed by the Opposition leader), but at level 5 the real damage begins, as significant investments in thousands of backyards, rural properties and farms begin to whither away.

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