Saturday, August 13, 2005
Always a talking point
No wonder political action on climate change is slow. People’s perceptions of global warming are most influenced by their immediate experience. Don’t talk to this Brisbane resident about global-bloody-warming: I had to wear a jumper today.
After a sweltering heatwave is shattered by a fierce storm which brings two damaging tornados to the UK’s West Midlands, ask a resident of Edgbaston if they think global warming is real and you might get a different answer.
But this personal misunderstanding of the weather symptoms of climate change must not cloud (no pun intended) the debate on more detailed scientific studies into this phenomena.
The New Scientist recently ran a story on a study that concluded that the Siberian tundra is rapidly thawing – in response to a 3°C increase in average temperature over the last 40 years - with potentially devastating consequences.
Permafrost beneath many hundreds of thousands of square kilometres of marshy tundra (“the size of France and Germany put together”) is melting fast, and there’s a high probability of it could release vast quantities of greenhouse gas into the atmosphere.
If the bogs dry out, the humus will rot and oxidise and the greenhouse gas will be released as CO2. If the bogs do not dry, 70 billion tonnes of methane, a far more potent greenhouse gas, will bubble up into the atmosphere instead.
Either way, we could be stuffed.
What is most disconcerting about this study is not just the alarming speed at which it is occurring but that it is just one of a number of theoretical positive feedback mechanisms identified in a warming earth, which could perpetuate even greater levels of warming.
Other positive feedback mechanisms identified include the melting of the bright white Greenland ice-cap, which could result in the more energy being absorbed by a darker ground cover rather than being reflected straight back into space. Another is the drying of lush equatorial forests, leading to CO2 release from reducing living biomass.
These positive feedback mechanisms are most concerning as they amplify the impact that humans have already undoubtedly had on atmospheric CO2 levels and global warming.
Thus, even in an ideal world of rapidly reducing anthropogenic CO2 emissions, we may already have pushed the planet beyond a stable equilibrium towards a runaway greenhouse scenario, potentially taking many tens of thousands of years to restabilise.
With the political will we can make a difference to human emissions, but even this may now not be enough.
Always a talking point
Posted by Living with Matilda at 9:16 AM
No wonder political action on climate change is slow. People’s perceptions of global warming are most influenced by their immediate experience. Don’t talk to this Brisbane resident about global-bloody-warming: I had to wear a jumper today.
After a sweltering heatwave is shattered by a fierce storm which brings two damaging tornados to the UK’s West Midlands, ask a resident of Edgbaston if they think global warming is real and you might get a different answer.
But this personal misunderstanding of the weather symptoms of climate change must not cloud (no pun intended) the debate on more detailed scientific studies into this phenomena.
The New Scientist recently ran a story on a study that concluded that the Siberian tundra is rapidly thawing – in response to a 3°C increase in average temperature over the last 40 years - with potentially devastating consequences.
Permafrost beneath many hundreds of thousands of square kilometres of marshy tundra (“the size of France and Germany put together”) is melting fast, and there’s a high probability of it could release vast quantities of greenhouse gas into the atmosphere.
If the bogs dry out, the humus will rot and oxidise and the greenhouse gas will be released as CO2. If the bogs do not dry, 70 billion tonnes of methane, a far more potent greenhouse gas, will bubble up into the atmosphere instead.
Either way, we could be stuffed.
What is most disconcerting about this study is not just the alarming speed at which it is occurring but that it is just one of a number of theoretical positive feedback mechanisms identified in a warming earth, which could perpetuate even greater levels of warming.
Other positive feedback mechanisms identified include the melting of the bright white Greenland ice-cap, which could result in the more energy being absorbed by a darker ground cover rather than being reflected straight back into space. Another is the drying of lush equatorial forests, leading to CO2 release from reducing living biomass.
These positive feedback mechanisms are most concerning as they amplify the impact that humans have already undoubtedly had on atmospheric CO2 levels and global warming.
Thus, even in an ideal world of rapidly reducing anthropogenic CO2 emissions, we may already have pushed the planet beyond a stable equilibrium towards a runaway greenhouse scenario, potentially taking many tens of thousands of years to restabilise.
With the political will we can make a difference to human emissions, but even this may now not be enough.
Posted by Living with Matilda at 9:16 AM
Disclaimer:
| I am employed by Brisbane City Council. All views expressed in this blog are my own and in no way reflect the views of my employer. |
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